ARDC Market Research Program Proposal (Draft)

Prepared for: ARDC (Chelsea Parraga and team)
Prepared by: Jim Idelson
Status: Draft (v0.1)

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TL;DR (90 seconds)

What ARDC will get - A decision-ready understanding of participation, retention, and attrition in amateur radio, with a primary lens on: - A1: Licensed + Active - A2: Licensed but Inactive / Lapsed - Clear, evidence-based guidance on where the ecosystem leaks and what interventions are most likely to move the needle. - Optional, complementary insight into awareness and attraction outside amateur radio, split into: - B1: General population baseline - B2: High-potential adjacency segments - A reusable foundation for future waves (trendable core + longitudinal-ready design).

How we’ll run it (modules, not a black box) This program is intentionally structured to deliver results throughout, not only at the end.
Each module ends with a sponsor-facing deliverable and a decision gate.

1. M0 – Charter & Alignment → Research Charter + Insight Backlog + Plan/Gates
2. M1 – Discovery Sprint → Hypothesis Map + Segmentation Framework + Fielding Options (v1)
3. M2 – Qual Exploration → Qual Topline + Journey Breakpoints + Measures List
4. M3 – Instrument Draft & QA → Survey v1 + Bias/Validity Review Memo
5. M4 – Cognitive Test → Findings + Survey v2
6. M5 – Pilot → Pilot Topline + Instrument Performance + Survey v3 (final)
7. M6 – Fielding Pulse → Weekly pulse updates (composition, response, fixes)
8. M7 – Analysis & Synthesis → Topline v1 + Segment Deep Dives + Opportunity Map
9. M8 – Decision Kit → Report + Deck + Dataset/Codebook/Methods + Action Workshop

Engagement model options - Prime/Lead: Jim leads design, analysis, and recommendations; ARDC supports access/outreach. - Advisor: ARDC leads operations; Jim provides research architecture, QA, analysis, and synthesis. - Optional fielding partner (e.g., NORC / Westat) can be added if rigor/scale requires it.

Next step Approve Module 0 so we can finalize scope, decision uses, fielding approach, and the module plan.

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Documents

Main proposal

• Proposal (full)

Modules (milestone deliverables)

• M0 – Charter & Alignment
• M1 – Discovery Sprint
• M2 – Qual Exploration
• M3 – Instrument Draft & QA
• M4 – Cognitive Test
• M5 – Pilot
• M6 – Fielding Pulse
• M7 – Analysis & Synthesis
• M8 – Decision Kit

Appendices (rigor and reusable artifacts)

• Sampling, Accuracy, and Data Science
• Bias Management Plan
• Retention Modules (Longitudinal Options)

Graphics

• (placeholder) Program Map (modules + gates)
• (placeholder) Workstream Model (A1/A2, B1/B2)
• (placeholder) Lifecycle Funnel (recruit → activate → engage → retain → reactivate)

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Notes (working assumptions)

• Workstream A is primary; Workstream B is complementary and may be scoped based on ARDC priorities and budget.
• Wave 1 will be designed to preserve optionality for future waves (trendable core + longitudinal-ready).